The New Normal: Markets Emerging in the Super-CycleStandard Chartered | April 17, 2012
Amidst a landscape of geopolitical and natural crises, uncertainty and volatility across the world’s financial markets continue to cause major concern. But despite the turmoil, optimism for longer term growth remains high, with emerging economies viewed as the drivers of growth on a scale never before seen. Which markets will come out on top? Where can you expect to see the biggest upside and opportunities?
The Standard Chartered Symposium delivers a platform to examine the role emerging markets are playing in the super-cycle. Standard Chartered’s senior executives, product specialists and economists from across the Bank’s footprint share their views and insights. Policymakers and industry leaders take part in a series of invigorating debates. Thoughts on the global outlook presented by Dr. Gerard Lyons, Standard Chartered’s Chief Economist and Group Head of Global Research. Keynote presentation delivered by Niall Ferguson, Historian, Professor at Harvard University and Harvard Business School, and author of Civilization: The West and the Rest. Sessions will be moderated by CNBC’s Amanda Drury.
Mr. Rosen spoke on a panel with Professor Cai Fang, Economist and Deputy to the National People’s Congress; Dr. Jie Tang, Deputy Mayor of Shenzhen; and Stephen Green, Head of Research, Greater China, Global Research, Financial Markets at Standard Chartered.
The panel, entitled “China’s Future: Rebalance, Collapse or Stagnate?” revolved around a singular question: Is China going to be able to rebalance its economy? Few questions are as important for China, and for the world economy.
-While the investment-heavy model of today has created cities and a manufacturing sector which is the envy of the emerging world, it is not clear that the transition to a service-driven, high-productivity economy is going to be easy.
-While the government in Beijing amazes some with its long-term planning abilities, special interest groups are also holding back essential reforms.
-Manufacturing labor wages are going up, but given the lack of social welfare and housing, are these folk able to become real consumers?
-Already much debate in Beijing swirls around the emergence of huge inequalities in wealth, and the potential danger that the country will not be able to create a big-enough middle class to generate sustainable growth.