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Wind of Change: German China Policy After the Election
An election on February 23 could bring change in Germany’s approach to China. The extent of the shift will depend in part on the makeup of the governing coalition.
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China
Rhodium Group’s China practice supports leaders in the public, corporate, and financial sectors with data-driven analysis of China’s economy, policy dynamics, and commercial ties with the world.
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Rhodium Group’s Energy & Climate practice analyzes the effects of policy and market developments on greenhouse gas emissions and energy systems, and provides actionable information about the impacts of climate change.
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AboutNote
An election on February 23 could bring change in Germany’s approach to China. The extent of the shift will depend in part on the makeup of the governing coalition.
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China’s investment-led growth model has reached its limits and household consumption will be the key driver of China’s long-term economic trajectory. Beijing has reform options available, though they vary in financial and political viability.
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We review China’s role in four major sectors—apparel, consumer electronics, PV, and autos—over the past decade, then consider four plausible scenarios to 2030 and their implications for China’s future role in global trade and investment patterns.
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Trade barriers and outright bans in major markets like the US threaten to stall export momentum for China's automakers. Slumping export growth will put pressure on Chinese automakers, potentially leading to industry consolidation.
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One key driver of sustained industrial emissions is the growth of emissions associated with petrochemical manufacturing in the US, which we estimate could rise by 6-32% by 2030 over today's levels.
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Decarbonization in the transportation sector faces three key barriers: cost, namely a “green premium,” a slow pace of stock turnover, and limits on the availability of feedstocks and fuels.
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The emerging industry of CDR encompasses an array of innovative solutions that are ready for takeoff. On top of climate change mitigation, industrial scaling will have widely distributed economic, social, and environmental benefits.
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Since peaking in 2004, US emissions have trended downward in a bumpy fashion. But after a significant decline in 2023, we estimate that 2024 emissions were down by just 0.2% year-on-year while the economy grew by 2.7%.
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