Report
Taking Stock 2026: US Energy and Emissions Outlook
We find that the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 27-41% below 2005 levels in 2040, considering all relevant federal and state policies on the books as of June 2026.
Energy & Climate
Rhodium Group’s Energy & Climate practice analyzes the effects of policy and market developments on greenhouse gas emissions and energy systems, and provides actionable information about the impacts of climate change. We help public and private decision-makers understand what kind of climate and energy future we are on track for, and what matters most for reducing greenhouse gas emissions—at the state, national, and international levels.
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About usOur research
By combining policy expertise with a suite of detailed energy-economic models, our research provides unique, data-driven insights into the impacts of energy and climate change policy and real-world developments on greenhouse gas emissions, energy markets, economic output, and clean technology pathways.
Latest research
Note
Assessing Data Center Power Options with the Transition Acceleration Framework
We assess which options for powering data centers genuinely accelerate the energy transition, which undermine progress, and which merely participate in trends that are taking place anyway, using the new Transition Acceleration Framework.
Note
Solar Manufacturing in Asia at a Crossroads
We dig into what’s been happening in Southeast Asia and India—regions that have absorbed the most solar manufacturing investment outside of the US, Europe, and China since 2018—and explore what these trends mean for broader diversification.
Note
Clean Investment Monitor: US Q1 2026 Update
In the first quarter of 2026, clean energy and transportation investment in the United States totaled $61 billion, a 3% decline from Q4 2025 and a 9% decline from Q1 2025.
Note
Worlds Apart: Contrasting US-China Approaches to Scaling Clean Technology Manufacturing
Global clean tech manufacturing investment has moderated after a decade of extraordinary growth. China and the US were the primary drivers of that rise and the subsequent pullback—though the nature of each country's decline differs significantly.
Note
Building a Geothermal Powerhouse Region in the South-Central and Southwest United States
Targeted, well-designed, ambitious policies enacted by states can leverage the immense changes and investment opportunities on the horizon to drive deployment of geothermal on the grid.
Note
Forging a Global Clean Steel Economy: Leveraging Trade to Reduce the Green Premium
In steel production, fossil fuels are consumed primarily in the initial ironmaking step. We examine the major cost drivers of clean iron production and assess which countries are best positioned to produce it at low cost.
Report
Caught in the Current: Historical and Prospective Drivers of Changes in US Electricity Prices
Recent electricity price increases in the US are driven by multiple, intersecting factors that vary substantially regionally and by individual utility.
Data and tools
Trustworthy, integrative data is at the core of Rhodium’s research and services. Our team uses a suite of custom-built datasets and energy-economic models to analyze the effects of policy and market developments on energy systems and greenhouse gas emissions at the international, US, and state levels.
Data platforms and collaborations
ClimateDeck
ClimateDeck provides global and US 50-state greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory data and projections, energy market outlooks, and analysis of energy and climate policy developments.
Clean Investment Monitor: US
The Clean Investment Monitor, a joint project with MIT’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, tracks public and private investments in the full landscape of climate technologies in the United States.
Climate Impact Lab
The Climate Impact Lab combines climate science, econometrics, and big data analytics to advance understanding of the real-world social impacts and economic costs of climate change.
Our work in the news
Footnotes
1.
The Pathways report sets a target of achieving this level of deployment by 2030, whereas our analysis extends through 2035. This validation suite can still play a critical role in enabling geothermal’s liftoff over a longer timeline.
2.
When discussing private and federal investment, we refer exclusively to capital expenditures (e.g., buildings, equipment) and not ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M) spending. We incorporate both capital and O&M expenditures when calculating employment impacts below. Private and federal investment reflects total investment net of state government expenditures, which we unpack in further detail below.
3.
These ratios reflect our high geothermal manufacturing scenario. In our low geothermal manufacturing scenario, $1 of state investment yields $3.36 and $3.35 of private and federal investment in the State Action and Enhanced State Action scenarios, respectively.
4.
We assume a representative 20 MW turbine for analytical purposes; however, recent announcements indicate that even larger turbines may be feasible. Turbine cost and size assumptions flow through to the economic impact analysis. Larger turbine sizes may slightly reduce total investment, jobs, and tax revenues due to economies of scale.