While the COVID-19 outbreak further weighed on Chinese outbound investment in 1Q 2020, many governments are concerned that market volatility may create fire sale opportunities for Chinese buyers. But is China really in a position to take advantage of low asset prices globally? This note explores the Chinese outbound investment outlook at this critical juncture.

In the teeth of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, China launched a massive investment-led stimulus effort, funded by banking system credit, leading the globe toward recovery. Now, facing a global economic downturn of similar or greater magnitude from the Covid-19 outbreak, observers are asking whether China will do it again. This time, Beijing does not have the option.

Based on preliminary energy and economic data for 2019, we estimate that China’s greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.6% last year. This was due to increased consumption of fossil fuels across all fuel types, with oil and gas growth outpacing coal, along with growth in non-CO2 gases.