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China Pathfinder: Q2 2024 Update
The Third Plenum included laudable goals that would align with market norms under the Pathfinder framework. But with few exceptions, the decisions do not answer how these goals will be accomplished.
Partner
Daniel H. Rosen is the co-founder of Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s work on China.
ChinaMr. Rosen has worked professionally on China’s domestic economy and global commercial relations since 1992. He is widely recognized for his research on US-China relations and Asian commercial dynamics. He is affiliated with numerous think tanks focused on international economics and is an Adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University.
From 2000-2001, Mr. Rosen was Senior Adviser for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and National Security Council. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations.
A native of New York City, Daniel graduated with distinction from the graduate School of Foreign Service of Georgetown University (MSFS) and with honors in Asian Studies and Economics from the University of Texas, Austin (BA).
Note
The Third Plenum included laudable goals that would align with market norms under the Pathfinder framework. But with few exceptions, the decisions do not answer how these goals will be accomplished.
Report
Although diversification is already underway, it proves difficult even in economies that have better security alignment with the US and the same attributes that made China attractive.
Note
The key question from the Third Plenum is whether Beijing can credibly and coherently message its reform priorities to change China’s economic trajectory in the near future. Resetting expectations is vitally important, but meeting them is harder.
Note
External relations can only be positive if China demonstrates convergence with market norms. Based on the China Pathfinder framework, the opposite is in evidence, and market economies will discuss how to react at the coming G7 leader’s summit.