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Forecast of China’s Economy for 2019


New York City

DATE: Thursday, Jan. 10
TIME: 12:15 p.m. EST
LOCATION: The Citigroup Center, 153 East 53rd Street, New York, NY

TICKETS: Available here.

The United States and China embarked on a full-scale trade war in 2018, with both sides lobbing threats of new tariffs. While such protectionist actions threaten serious damage to the global economy, the Chinese and American economies have the most at stake. Furthermore, in the third quarter of 2018 China’s economy is growing at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis, with GDP growth dropping to 6.5%, falling short of market expectations.

How will the Chinese leadership, under President Xi Jinping, confront these challenges? Is China still following a path of “reform and opening up?” Could the predicted slowdown worsen?

The National Committee and Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research are once again bringing together leading Chinese and American economists for a half-day conference in New York City to discuss the economic outlook for 2019.

Topics will include:

  • Is an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade war possible?
  • The impacts of the trade war on the U.S., Chinese, and global markets
  • Progress and challenges in structural reform
  • Risks and opportunities in China’s economy in 2019 and beyond
  • Cross-border capital flows and financial deleveraging
  •  Expected reforms for China in 2019

Keynote Speakers:

Justin Yifu Lin, Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago, is director of Center for New Structural Economics, dean of Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development, and professor and honorary dean of the National School of Development at Peking University. He was the senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank, 2008-2012.

Dr. Lin served for 15 years as founding director and professor of the China Centre for Economic Research (CCER) at Peking University. He is the author of 23 books. He is councilor of the State Council, a member of the Standing Committee, Chinese People’s Political Consultation Conference, and vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce. He is a corresponding fellow of the British Academy and a fellow of the Academy of Sciences for Developing World.


Qin Xiao, who received his Ph.D. in economics from Cambridge University, is a council member of the FSDC (Financial Services Development Council, HK) and guest professor at Tsinghua University and the Chinese University of Hong Kong. He served as chairman of China Merchants Group and China Merchants Bank; president and vice chairman of China International Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC); and chairman of CITIC Industrial Bank.  He was a deputy to the Ninth National People’s Congress, a member of the 10th and 11th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and an advisor on the Foreign Currency Policy of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. He also served as chairman of APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) for 2001. His papers and books in economics, management, and social transformation have been published in China and abroad.



Michelle Caruso-Cabrera is CNBC’s chief international correspondent and co-anchor of “Power Lunch,” which airs Monday through Friday from 1 to 3pm ET.

In 2016, she reported live from Iran on the state of the economy and potential investment opportunities in the country, despite continuing U.S. sanctions. Caruso-Cabrera also traveled to Brazil to cover the effect of the Car Wash scandal on Petrobras.

Latin America is a large focus of her coverage as trade has become a key election issue, particularly when it comes to Mexico. Previously, Caruso-Cabrera has done extensive reporting on Mexico’s efforts to modernize PEMEX and has interviewed dozens of Mexican business executives, CEOs and government officials. She also covered Venezuela during the PDVSA strike.

Additionally, she has reported from Cuba more than half a dozen times as relations between the U.S. and Cuba have thawed.

Since 2010, she has covered the European financial crisis, reporting live from Athens, Rome, Frankfurt, Madrid, Brussels, Luxembourg and Cyprus. In the summer of 2015, she spent a full month in Greece.

Caruso-Cabrera joined CNBC in 1998 from WTSP-TV in St. Petersburg, Fla., where she spent four years as a general assignment reporter covering crime and hurricanes. Prior to that, she was a special projects producer for Univision where she gained experience covering Latin America. She began her career in 1990 while in college, as a stringer for The New York Times, reporting for the education section.

Caruso-Cabrera has reported one-hour documentaries for the network, including “Liquid Assets: The Big Business of Water” and “The Race to Rebuild: America’s Infrastructure.”

Caruso-Cabrera wrote her first book, “You Know I’m Right: More Prosperity, Less Government,” in 2010. Previously, she wrote a personal finance column for Shape en Español and People en Español.

She has also been awarded Broadcaster of the Year from the National Association of Hispanic Journalists and was named one of the “100 Most Influential Hispanics” in the country by Hispanic Business magazine. She earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Wellesley College.

Stephen A. Orlins has been president of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations since May 2005.  Prior to that, Mr. Orlins was the managing director of Carlyle Asia and the chairman of the board of Taiwan Broadband Communications, one of Taiwan’s largest cable television and high speed internet providers.  Prior to joining Carlyle, he was a senior advisor to AEA Investors Inc., a New York based leveraged buyout firm, with responsibility for AEA’s business activities throughout Asia.

From 1983 to 1991, Mr. Orlins was with the investment banking firm of Lehman Brothers where he was a managing director from 1985 to 1991.  From 1987 to 1990, he served as president of Lehman Brothers Asia.  Based in Hong Kong, he supervised over 150 professionals with offices in Hong Kong, Korea, China, Taiwan, Thailand, Manila and Singapore.  Prior to joining Lehman Brothers, Mr. Orlins practiced law with Coudert Brothers and Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison in New York, Hong Kong and Beijing.

From 1976 to 1979, Mr. Orlins served in the Office of the Legal Advisor of the United States Department of State, first in the Office of the Assistant Legal Advisor for Political-Military Affairs and then for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.  While in that office, he was a member of the legal team that helped establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China.

Mr. Orlins is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College and earned his law degree at Harvard Law School.  He speaks Mandarin Chinese and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

In 1992, Mr. Orlins was the Democratic nominee for the United States Congress in New York’s Third Congressional District.


  • Huang Haizhou, Managing Director, China International Capital Corporation
  • Huang Yiping, Professor and Deputy Dean, NSD, PKU
  • Nicholas R. Lardy, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Liang Hong, Chief Economist, CICC
  • Lu Feng, Professor, NSD; Director, China Macroeconomic Research Center, PKU
  • Catherine L. MannGlobal Chief Economist, Citi
  • Daniel H. Rosen, Partner, Rhodium Group, LLC
  • Xiang Songzuo, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Center for International Monetary Research, Renmin University of China
  • Xu Gao, Chief Economist, China Everbright Securities Co., Ltd.
  • Yao Yang, Professor and Dean, National School of Development (NSD), Peking University (PKU)
Practice Area