Associate Director
Allen Feng is a Associate Director with Rhodium Group's China Markets Research team, specializing in China's interbank money market, PBOC monetary policy, and economic policy debates.
ChinaBefore joining Rhodium, Allen was the primary China reporter for Market News International for over ten years, covering China’s economy, policy decisions, and developments in China’s fixed income and currency markets. Allen is well informed on activities throughout China’s financial sector, with a strong network of contacts within Chinese financial institutions. Allen has a Bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. He is based in Singapore.
Note
We estimate China will lose nearly 60 million people in the next decade, roughly equivalent to the population of France. The impact on household consumption is obvious, but the larger problem for Beijing may be the hit to social security funds.
Note
China’s “new” high-technology industries will not generate investment sufficient to power 5% GDP growth in the years ahead. New input-output tables released by the NBS show these industries remain too small relative to traditional sectors.
Note
China’s investment-led growth model has reached its limits and household consumption will be the key driver of China’s long-term economic trajectory. Beijing has reform options available, though they vary in financial and political viability.
Note
The key question from the Third Plenum is whether Beijing can credibly and coherently message its reform priorities to change China’s economic trajectory in the near future. Resetting expectations is vitally important, but meeting them is harder.
