We support leaders in the public, corporate, and financial sectors with data-driven analysis of China’s economy, policy dynamics, and commercial ties.
Rhodium Group’s China research is grounded in an objective analysis of economic and policy dynamics, and a laser-like focus on implications for government and business decision-makers. We support the public sector, corporate leadership, and institutional investors’ strategy and decision-making with deep and actionable analysis of China’s economy and its global interactions. Our thought leadership work with philanthropies and think tanks has been a part of Rhodium’s mission since its founding in 2008.
Note
The key question from the Third Plenum is whether Beijing can credibly and coherently message its reform priorities to change China’s economic trajectory in the near future. Resetting expectations is vitally important, but meeting them is harder.
Note
Unless Beijing implements serious demand reforms, developing nations will be crowded out of manufacturing by Chinese overcapacity, leaving them dependent and without export opportunities.
Report
Building on a long collaboration between Rhodium Group and MERICS, this report summarizes China’s investment footprint in the EU-27 and the UK in 2023, analyzing the shifting patterns in China’s FDI as well as policy developments in Europe and China.
Note
Rhodium Group’s MPER China framework allows investors to effectively de-risk from problematic Chinese issuers without wholesale divestment.
Note
External relations can only be positive if China demonstrates convergence with market norms. Based on the China Pathfinder framework, the opposite is in evidence, and market economies will discuss how to react at the coming G7 leader’s summit.
Note
In deploying a fresh wave of duties on a short list of strategic products, the Biden administration is highlighting the China dependencies that it wants to break while also inadvertently providing China with a target list for retaliation.
Cargo vessel at sea
Report
We take a fresh look at the data on the expanding capacity of China’s legacy chip production after two big waves of US-led chip controls and review how the US aims to target these foundational chips.
Note
EU duties on Chinese EV imports are unlikely to be high enough to slow market share gains for Chinese automakers, forcing Brussels to consider other tools to protect the continent’s car industry.
When trustworthy data isn’t readily available, we have successfully built our own models to fill gaps.
The China Pathfinder project scores China's market reform across six key areas relative to open market economy norms.
Helping investors manage their systemic China portfolio risk.
A multiyear initiative that aims to provide greater transparency on capital flows between China and the United States.
Rhodium Group provides research, data, and insights that help clients face new challenges and seize new opportunities in China. Our teams have solutions for companies, investors, and governments that operate in or do business with China.
We provide strategic planning support for world-leading tech, industrial, retail, and services companies. With Rhodium’s help, clients can develop robust China+ strategies, uncover new revenue and investment opportunities, map out risks, build mitigation plans, optimize cross-border operations, and stress-test internal assumptions.
Our highly experienced analysts take a credit-driven, “follow the money” approach to gauging the inflection points in China’s economic outlook. We have a track record of predicting where China’s economy will go well before it gets there, providing huge value for institutional investors.
Our team provides best in class written and visual analysis to help public and private sector clients better understand key questions about China and its relation to the world. By engaging actively in the public debate about China’s interactions with the world, we constantly test our analysis against real world experience with leader-level audiences.
Combining cutting-edge technology with deep analytical China expertise, we create data solutions that help public and private sector clients manage risks and seize opportunities connected to China’s development and emerging global footprint.
Manufacturing goods are defined following the World Bank’s definition: Commodities in SITC sections 5 (chemicals), 6 (basic manufactures), 7 (machinery and transport equipment), and 8 (miscellaneous manufactured goods), excluding division 68 (non-ferrous metals), to which we re-added the manufactured product categories within division 68. South Asia includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
According to the latest release of TiVA data, OECD.
We use the IMF definition of developing countries. See https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April/groups-and-aggregates.
The figures presented in this report are based on publicly disclosed investments and provide a conservative estimate of investment trends.
The investment value for such large multi-year greenfield investments is estimated on a quarterly basis and covers the period from when a project breaks ground until the start of production.
No deal value was disclosed for the investment by Gotion High-Tech in Inobat. The €364 million in investment recorded for Slovakia is all attributed to the Volvo EV battery plant.
AESC is headquartered in Japan, but it has been majority owned by Chinese firm Envision since 2018.
Investment in Germany is higher than this recorded figure. The value for Gotion High-Tech’s brownfield investment in a Bosch factory in Göttingen to produce batteries has not been disclosed, and thus could not be accounted for.
Investment screening notifications submitted to the European Commission do not account for all investment screening cases conducted by EU Member States. While Article 6 of the EU’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Regulation states that “Member States shall notify the Commission and the other Member States of any foreign direct investment in their territory that is undergoing screening”, Member States appear to maintain a large degree of discretion on whether to notify the Commission. For instance, in 2022 a total of 23 notifications involving China were submitted to the EU Commission, while Germany alone recorded 37 investment screening cases involving China.
Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (BMWK). “Investment Screening in Germany: Facts & Figures. All figures as per 30 January 2024” https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/EN/Publikationen/Aussenwirtschaft/investment-screening-in-germany-facts-figures.pdf?blob=publicationFile&v=2. Accessed: May 23, 2024.
Pirelli (2023). Press Release. June 18, 2023. https://press.pirelli.com/press-release-18-june-2023/. Accessed: May 23, 2024.
European Parliament (2018). Briefing EU Legislation in Progress. “EU framework for FDI screening.” January 2018. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/EPRS/EPRS-Briefing-614667-EU-framework-FDI-screening-FINAL.pdf. Accessed: May 23, 2024.
JD Supra (2023). “Ireland Introduces Foreign Investment Screening Regime.” December 1, 2023. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/ireland-introduces-foreign-investment-5346967/. Accessed: May 23, 2024.
CIRCABC. https://circabc.europa.eu/ui/group/aac710a0-4eb3-493e-a12a-e988b442a72a/library/f5091d46-475f-45d0-9813-7d2a7537bc1f/details?download=true. Accessed: May 23, 2024.
Crowell & Moring LLP. “A New European Commission Proposal on Foreign Direct Investment Screening: Towards Greater Harmonization?” https://www.crowell.com/en/insights/client-alerts/a-new-european-commission-proposal-on-foreign-direct-investment-screening-towards-greater-harmonization#:~:text=Currently%2C%2024%20out%20of%2027,into%20force%20during%20 Q2%202024. Accessed: May 23, 2024.
Journal of Chinese Academy of Science Issue 3 (2024). https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EXCvMG67t-n tkddujGOA. Accessed: May 23, 2024.
