Senior Analyst
Jeremy Smith is a Senior Analyst with Rhodium Group’s China practice, focusing on China’s evolving growth dynamics and economic engagement with the world.
ChinaJeremy previously worked at S&P Global, where he performed macroeconomic forecasting and sovereign risk analysis for countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Prior to that, he was a James C. Gaither Junior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Jeremy received a master’s degree from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, concentrating in international economics and China studies. He also earned a graduate certificate from the Hopkins-Nanjing Center and a bachelor’s degree in economics and Chinese from Williams College.
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China's actual 2025 GDP growth fell short of 3%. For domestic demand to lift China above 2% GDP growth in 2026, Beijing must reverse the systemic causes of household and business malaise or pile on costly demand subsidies.
Report
As China’s economic model loses steam, African officials and policymakers will need to plan for growth and economic transformation with an understanding that their largest trade and investment partner might look very different than it has.
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If tariffs remain high, US-China trade flows will be redirected in the medium term: Third countries may find opportunities to serve US demand, but will also face an influx of low-priced Chinese exports.
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By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below target. If it stimulates domestic demand with some urgency and ramps up debt, we think China could get to 3-4.5% growth in 2025.
