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Trade Diversion: Blessing or Curse?
If tariffs remain high, US-China trade flows will be redirected in the medium term: Third countries may find opportunities to serve US demand, but will also face an influx of low-priced Chinese exports.
Jeremy Smith
Research Analyst
Jeremy Smith is a Research Analyst with Rhodium Group’s China practice, focusing on China’s evolving growth dynamics and economic engagement with the world.
ChinaJeremy previously worked at S&P Global, where he performed macroeconomic forecasting and sovereign risk analysis for countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Prior to that, he was a James C. Gaither Junior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Jeremy received a master’s degree from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, concentrating in international economics and China studies. He also earned a graduate certificate from the Hopkins-Nanjing Center and a bachelor’s degree from Williams College.
Jeremy is from St. Louis, MO, and works in Rhodium’s Washington, DC office.
Research by Jeremy Smith
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After the Fall: China’s Economy in 2025
By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below target. If it stimulates domestic demand with some urgency and ramps up debt, we think China could get to 3-4.5% growth in 2025.
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Why Isn’t Europe Diversifying from China?
Over the past seven years, the US and Japan have diversified their trade, sourcing, and investment away from China. The European Union hasn't, despite having derisking policies in place. We explain why.