Report
Taking Stock 2026: US Energy and Emissions Outlook
We find that the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 27-41% below 2005 levels in 2040, considering all relevant federal and state policies on the books as of June 2026.
Michael Gaffney
Senior Analyst
Michael Gaffney is a Senior Analyst with Rhodium Group’s Energy & Climate practice.
Energy & ClimateMichael works across a range of topic areas, including US energy policy and emissions, clean fuels, and petrochemicals.
He holds a Master’s degree in Public Policy from the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy and a Bachelor’s degree in Political Economy from UC Berkeley.
Research by Michael Gaffney
Note
Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates for 2025
Based on preliminary economic and energy activity data, we estimate that in 2025, US greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4%, marking a change from the prior two years of decreases in emissions.
Report
Taking Stock 2025: US Energy and Emissions Outlook
We find the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 26-41% in 2040 relative to 2005 levels. On the way to 2040, we estimate GHG emissions levels will decline 26-35% in 2035.
Note
What Passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Means for US Energy and the Economy
We estimate the fiscal year 2025 budget reconciliation legislation will increase national average household energy bills by $78-192 and increase total industrial energy expenditures by $7-11 billion in 2035.