Research Analyst
Rogan Quinn is a Research Analyst with Rhodium Group’s China practice, focusing on macroeconomics and capital markets.
ChinaPrior to joining Rhodium Group, Rogan assumed an array of roles within the asset management and investment consulting space. His experience also includes implementing and evaluating economic development and social programs across emerging and developed countries. He remains actively involved with The Resolution Project, an organization that aims to empower responsible young leaders and their respective social ventures.
Rogan received his MBA in finance from China Europe International Business School in Shanghai and his BA in economics from Union College in New York.
Note
By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below target. If it stimulates domestic demand with some urgency and ramps up debt, we think China could get to 3-4.5% growth in 2025.
Report
We explain what is holding back household consumption in China and examine the policy debate over how to catalyze consumer spending.
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The key question from the Third Plenum is whether Beijing can credibly and coherently message its reform priorities to change China’s economic trajectory in the near future. Resetting expectations is vitally important, but meeting them is harder.
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China may see a cyclical recovery to perhaps 3.0-3.5% growth in 2024 as the property sector bottoms out, but structural slowdown will remain the dominant story for years to come.
