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Through the Looking Glass: China’s 2023 GDP and the Year Ahead
China may see a cyclical recovery to perhaps 3.0-3.5% growth in 2024 as the property sector bottoms out, but structural slowdown will remain the dominant story for years to come.
Rogan Quinn
Research Analyst
Rogan Quinn is a Research Analyst with Rhodium Group’s China practice, focusing on macroeconomics and capital markets.
ChinaPrior to joining Rhodium Group, Rogan assumed an array of roles within the asset management and investment consulting space. His experience also includes implementing and evaluating economic development and social programs across emerging and developed countries. He remains actively involved with The Resolution Project, an organization that aims to empower responsible young leaders and their respective social ventures.
Rogan received his MBA in finance from China Europe International Business School in Shanghai and his BA in economics from Union College in New York.
Content by Rogan Quinn
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The Myth of China’s Fiscal Space
China’s fiscal capacity is now very limited, because Beijing’s tax system is dependent upon an investment-led growth model that is ending.
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Now for the Hard Part: China’s Growth in 2023 and Beyond
Even under best-case COVID-19 exit scenarios, China faces strong economic headwinds which will subdue growth in 2023 and beyond.