Report
No Quick Fixes: China’s Long-Term Consumption Growth
We explain what is holding back household consumption in China and examine the policy debate over how to catalyze consumer spending.
Research Analyst
Rogan Quinn is a Research Analyst with Rhodium Group’s China practice, focusing on macroeconomics and capital markets.
ChinaPrior to joining Rhodium Group, Rogan assumed an array of roles within the asset management and investment consulting space. His experience also includes implementing and evaluating economic development and social programs across emerging and developed countries. He remains actively involved with The Resolution Project, an organization that aims to empower responsible young leaders and their respective social ventures.
Rogan received his MBA in finance from China Europe International Business School in Shanghai and his BA in economics from Union College in New York.
Report
We explain what is holding back household consumption in China and examine the policy debate over how to catalyze consumer spending.
Note
The key question from the Third Plenum is whether Beijing can credibly and coherently message its reform priorities to change China’s economic trajectory in the near future. Resetting expectations is vitally important, but meeting them is harder.
Note
China may see a cyclical recovery to perhaps 3.0-3.5% growth in 2024 as the property sector bottoms out, but structural slowdown will remain the dominant story for years to come.
Note
China’s fiscal capacity is now very limited, because Beijing’s tax system is dependent upon an investment-led growth model that is ending.