Rhodium Group’s Energy & Climate practice uses a multidisciplinary, data-driven approach to produce unique, independent insights into global energy dynamics, greenhouse gas emissions, and climate change.
We help public and private decision-makers understand what kind of climate future we are on track for, and what matters most for reducing greenhouse gas emissions—at the local, state, national, and international levels. By combining policy expertise with a suite of detailed energy-economic models, our research provides data-driven insights into the impacts of energy and climate change policy and real-world developments on greenhouse gas emissions, energy markets, economic output, and clean technology pathways.
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Note
Based on preliminary economic and energy activity data, we estimate that in 2025, US greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4%, marking a change from the prior two years of decreases in emissions.
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We find that global greenhouse gas emissions reached a new historical high in 2024, increasing 0.9% from the previous year.
Report
We provide probabilistic projections of the likely evolution of greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature rise through the end of the century, and insights into what will matter most for decarbonization in the coming decades.
Report
We find the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 26-41% in 2040 relative to 2005 levels. On the way to 2040, we estimate GHG emissions levels will decline 26-35% in 2035.
Note
We estimate the fiscal year 2025 budget reconciliation legislation will increase national average household energy bills by $78-192 and increase total industrial energy expenditures by $7-11 billion in 2035.
Note
One key driver of sustained industrial emissions is the growth of emissions associated with petrochemical manufacturing in the US, which we estimate could rise by 6-32% by 2030 over today's levels.
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Since peaking in 2004, US emissions have trended downward in a bumpy fashion. But after a significant decline in 2023, we estimate that 2024 emissions were down by just 0.2% year-on-year while the economy grew by 2.7%.
Journal article
In an article published in Science, Rhodium Group and 11 other organizations provide a multi-model comparison of the greenhouse gas emissions impacts of the EPA’s May 2024 standards for regulating greenhouse gases from power plants.
Note
We estimate that global GHG emissions rose in 2023 by 1.2% over the previous year, reaching 51.8 gigatons of CO2-equivalent on net. This follows a 1.0% increase in 2022 as countries recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions of 2020.
Note
We set a foundation for 2035 expectations for G20 economies by comparing projected emissions under today’s baseline with prospective reductions that would be required to stay on a straight-line path from their 2030 NDCs to their mid-century targets.
Smoking pipes of thermal power plant on sunset
