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Who Loses from China’s Export Gains?
If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the most.
Partner
Logan Wright is a Partner at Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s China Markets Research work.
ChinaHe is also a Senior Associate of the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, Logan was head of China research for Medley Global Advisors and a China analyst with Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, both in Beijing.
Logan’s research focuses on China’s financial system and credit conditions in shaping outcomes within China’s economy, as well as the policies of China’s central bank. He is the author of the forthcoming book Broken China: How the Economic Miracle Shattered and What it Means for the World, as well as three reports on China’s financial system and the country’s longer-term economic trajectory: Credit and Credibility (2018), The China Economic Risk Matrix (2020), and Grasping Shadows (2023).
Logan holds a Ph.D. from the George Washington University, where his dissertation concerned the political factors shaping the reform of China’s exchange rate regime. He graduated with a Master’s degree in Security Studies and a Bachelor’s degree in Foreign Service from Georgetown University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is based in Washington, DC, after living and working in Beijing and Hong Kong for over two decades.
Note
If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the most.
Report
We examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.
Journal article
The strategic challenge from China today is an entirely different threat from the one the United States and its allies faced only four years ago. Crucially, this change represents an urgent but potentially definitive opportunity for the US.
Note
China’s financial and fiscal systems are increasingly inefficient tools to maintain domestic economic growth, making China’s economy far more dependent upon exports in 2026 than in previous years.