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Ain’t No Duty High Enough
EU duties on Chinese EV imports are unlikely to be high enough to slow market share gains for Chinese automakers, forcing Brussels to consider other tools to protect the continent’s car industry.
Rhodium Group’s China practice uses an integrative, multidisciplinary approach to produce unique insights into China’s economy. We leverage our proprietary datasets and decades of experience to produce incisive analysis of China’s investment flows, market and policy directions, and economic and business cycles.
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EU duties on Chinese EV imports are unlikely to be high enough to slow market share gains for Chinese automakers, forcing Brussels to consider other tools to protect the continent’s car industry.
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Although China is developing capacities that are making its economy more resilient to Western sanctions, reciprocal economic statecraft measures would exact a heavy financial toll on the G7, China itself, and the global economy.
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China's policy plans will compound the growing imbalance between domestic supply and demand, setting China on course for a trade confrontation with the rest of the world.
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New US tech controls will force a mindset shift for a wide range of industries on how their products could be national security risks.
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Chinese OFDI along the EV value chain has been booming, fueling anxiety about Chinese companies’ dominance in high-tech industries.
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The shifting economic relationship between Germany and China could have outsize impact on the direction of European policymaking toward Beijing.
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In the second half of 2023, Beijing's efforts on market policy reorientation were limited.
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China's economic policymaking process appears broken, or at the very least impaired.
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China may see a cyclical recovery to perhaps 3.0-3.5% growth in 2024 as the property sector bottoms out, but structural slowdown will remain the dominant story for years to come.
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China's economic slowdown will likely force Beijing to channel S&T funding toward a narrower core of national security-relevant companies and priorities.