Journal article
China’s Economy Has Peaked. Can Beijing Redefine Its Goals?
Reprinted from China Leadership Monitor, Volume 81, September 1, 2024
Research
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The Urge to Merge: Streamlining US Sanction Lists Targeting China
As efforts to harmonize US blacklists expand, we examine scenarios under a potential Harris or Trump administration and measure the impact on Chinese firms.
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A Diversification Framework for China
Although diversification is already underway, it proves difficult even in economies that have better security alignment with the US and the same attributes that made China attractive.
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China Pathfinder: Q2 2024 Update
The Third Plenum included laudable goals that would align with market norms under the Pathfinder framework. But with few exceptions, the decisions do not answer how these goals will be accomplished.
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Blacklist Bonanza: Sanctions Against Chinese Companies Hit Record High
In Q2 2024, Western governments blacklisted a record 198 Chinese entities. Looking ahead, sanctions are likely to remain a key risk for global investors as scrutiny of Chinese companies expands into new areas.
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No Quick Fixes: China’s Long-Term Consumption Growth
We explain what is holding back household consumption in China and examine the policy debate over how to catalyze consumer spending.
External research
China’s Post-COVID OFDI Rebound Loses Steam
After a notable post-COVID rebound, China’s outbound foreign direct investment is losing steam again.
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Can Beijing Reset Expectations at the Third Plenum?
The key question from the Third Plenum is whether Beijing can credibly and coherently message its reform priorities to change China’s economic trajectory in the near future. Resetting expectations is vitally important, but meeting them is harder.
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How China’s Overcapacity Holds Back Emerging Economies
Unless Beijing implements serious demand reforms, developing nations will be crowded out of manufacturing by Chinese overcapacity, leaving them dependent and without export opportunities.
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Chinese FDI in Europe: 2023 Update
Building on a long collaboration between Rhodium Group and MERICS, this report summarizes China’s investment footprint in the EU-27 and the UK in 2023, analyzing the shifting patterns in China’s FDI as well as policy developments in Europe and China.
