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Wind of Change: German China Policy After the Election
An election on February 23 could bring change in Germany’s approach to China. The extent of the shift will depend in part on the makeup of the governing coalition.
Rhodium Group’s China practice uses an integrative, multidisciplinary approach to produce unique insights into China’s economy. We leverage our proprietary datasets and decades of experience to produce incisive analysis of China’s investment flows, market and policy directions, and economic and business cycles.
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An election on February 23 could bring change in Germany’s approach to China. The extent of the shift will depend in part on the makeup of the governing coalition.
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China’s investment-led growth model has reached its limits and household consumption will be the key driver of China’s long-term economic trajectory. Beijing has reform options available, though they vary in financial and political viability.
Report
We review China’s role in four major sectors—apparel, consumer electronics, PV, and autos—over the past decade, then consider four plausible scenarios to 2030 and their implications for China’s future role in global trade and investment patterns.
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Trade barriers and outright bans in major markets like the US threaten to stall export momentum for China's automakers. Slumping export growth will put pressure on Chinese automakers, potentially leading to industry consolidation.
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The return of Donald Trump to the White House represents a multi-dimensional challenge for Europe, with major implications for transatlantic relations, Europe’s relationship with China, and broader G7 unity.
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By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below target. If it stimulates domestic demand with some urgency and ramps up debt, we think China could get to 3-4.5% growth in 2025.
Journal article
As the tenor of the global AI race grows existential, the high-stakes wagers of tech titans and world powers risk geopolitical combustion.
Journal article
America now has the upper hand—but Trump’s maximalist tariffs would still carry risks.
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Chinese carmakers have made inroads into the Russian market, but are facing growing headwinds from Russia itself and the risk of increased scrutiny from Western policymakers.
External research
Chinese companies are expanding again in Northern Europe and Southeast Asia through greenfield FDI, which may complicate US efforts to get Chinese entities out of supply chains and curb their access to advanced technologies.