Report
20 Years of Missed Opportunities in China’s Exchange Rate Policy
We review the most important moments of China's exchange rate reforms since 2005, what has changed in twenty years, and more remarkably, what has remained the same.
Rhodium Group’s China practice uses an integrative, multidisciplinary approach to produce unique insights into China’s economy. We leverage our proprietary datasets and decades of experience to produce incisive analysis of China’s investment flows, market and policy directions, and economic and business cycles.
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Report
We review the most important moments of China's exchange rate reforms since 2005, what has changed in twenty years, and more remarkably, what has remained the same.
Note
The Trump administration’s decision to let NVIDIA sell its H20 chips to China is a sharp break from Biden-era controls, but its vision of keeping China hooked on US AI tech doesn't comport with Beijing's self-reliance push.
Note
We estimate China's total electric vehicle fleet is already displacing over 1 million barrels per day in implied oil demand. That level is likely to rise by around 600,000 barrels per day over the next year.
Report
Chinese FDI in the EU and UK reached €10 billion in 2024, rising 47% from the previous year. Europe also captured 53.2% of Chinese investment in high-income economies.
Note
How much revenue could a hypothetical sale of China's state-owned assets yield?
Data Insight
Chinese outbound FDI held steady in Q1 2025 compared to previous quarters. Greenfield investment continued to dominate but new investment in offshore manufacturing facilities remained lower than in 2023/2024 as Chinese investors await greater clarity
Note
If tariffs remain high, US-China trade flows will be redirected in the medium term: Third countries may find opportunities to serve US demand, but will also face an influx of low-priced Chinese exports.
Report
To answer whether MIC25 was successful, we measure outcomes across four of the plan's main categories: China’s import dependency, dependency on foreign companies, global competitiveness, and technological leadership.
Note
ASEAN has become the top destination for Chinese manufacturing FDI by number of announced transactions, but US tariffs of more than 30% would deal a major blow to the region’s diversification boom and China’s FDI there.
Note
Concerns are mounting in Brussels that existing tools may be insufficient to address the spillovers from China’s deep domestic imbalances and policies designed to capture global market share. What policy options are available to the EU?