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China’s Harsh Fiscal Winter
China’s aggregate fiscal revenues are likely to decline in 2025, even if China meets its full-year economic growth targets of “around 5%.”
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How Can China Boost Consumption?
China’s investment-led growth model has reached its limits and household consumption will be the key driver of China’s long-term economic trajectory. Beijing has reform options available, though they vary in financial and political viability.
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After the Fall: China’s Economy in 2025
By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below target. If it stimulates domestic demand with some urgency and ramps up debt, we think China could get to 3-4.5% growth in 2025.
Journal article
China’s Economy Has Peaked. Can Beijing Redefine Its Goals?
Reprinted from China Leadership Monitor, Volume 81, September 1, 2024
Report
No Quick Fixes: China’s Long-Term Consumption Growth
We explain what is holding back household consumption in China and examine the policy debate over how to catalyze consumer spending.
Note
China Pathfinder Update: Lack of Policy Solutions in Second Half of 2023 Belies Official Data
In the second half of 2023, Beijing's efforts on market policy reorientation were limited.
Note
Beijing’s Silence is Deafening
China's economic policymaking process appears broken, or at the very least impaired.
Note
Through the Looking Glass: China’s 2023 GDP and the Year Ahead
China may see a cyclical recovery to perhaps 3.0-3.5% growth in 2024 as the property sector bottoms out, but structural slowdown will remain the dominant story for years to come.
Report
Running Out of Road: China Pathfinder Annual Scorecard
As the structural nature of China's slowdown becomes undeniable, we track Beijing’s reform efforts by comparing China’s economic system to those of market economies.
Note
The Myth of China’s Fiscal Space
China’s fiscal capacity is now very limited, because Beijing’s tax system is dependent upon an investment-led growth model that is ending.