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The Stakes for Energy Costs in Budget Reconciliation
We estimate how much energy costs could rise for households and industry if Congress chooses to roll back and repeal key pollution regulations and energy tax credits.
Rhodium Group’s Energy & Climate practice uses a multidisciplinary, data-driven approach to produce unique, independent insights into global energy dynamics, greenhouse gas emissions, and climate change.
We help public and private decision-makers understand what kind of climate future we are on track for, and what matters most for reducing greenhouse gas emissions—at the local, state, national, and international levels. By combining policy expertise with a suite of detailed energy-economic models, our research provides data-driven insights into the impacts of energy and climate change policy and real-world developments on greenhouse gas emissions, energy markets, economic output, and clean technology pathways.
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We estimate how much energy costs could rise for households and industry if Congress chooses to roll back and repeal key pollution regulations and energy tax credits.
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Next-generation geothermal energy has a number of advantages in meeting growing electricity demand from data centers. We estimate how much of this demand could potentially be served by geothermal over the next decade.
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This note is the third in a series of quarterly briefings comparing clean technology deployment and manufacturing trends in Europe and the United States as part of a collaboration between Bruegel and Rhodium Group.
Report
In the final quarter of 2024, clean energy and transportation investment in the United States totaled $70 billion, reflecting a slight 1% decline from the previous quarter but a 6% increase from the same period in 2023.
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One key driver of sustained industrial emissions is the growth of emissions associated with petrochemical manufacturing in the US, which we estimate could rise by 6-32% by 2030 over today's levels.
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Since peaking in 2004, US emissions have trended downward in a bumpy fashion. But after a significant decline in 2023, we estimate that 2024 emissions were down by just 0.2% year-on-year while the economy grew by 2.7%.
Journal article
In an article published in Science, Rhodium Group and 11 other organizations provide a multi-model comparison of the greenhouse gas emissions impacts of the EPA’s May 2024 standards for regulating greenhouse gases from power plants.
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We estimate that global GHG emissions rose in 2023 by 1.2% over the previous year, reaching 51.8 gigatons of CO2-equivalent on net. This follows a 1.0% increase in 2022 as countries recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions of 2020.
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We set a foundation for 2035 expectations for G20 economies by comparing projected emissions under today’s baseline with prospective reductions that would be required to stay on a straight-line path from their 2030 NDCs to their mid-century targets.
Smoking pipes of thermal power plant on sunset
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The likely evolution of global greenhouse gas emissions and temperature rise through the end of the century, and energy trends in the world's major economies
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In our annually updated outlook for US greenhouse gas emissions under current federal and state policy, we find that the US is on track to reduce emissions 38-56% below 2005 levels by 2035, absent any additional new action.
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EPA recently finalized new standards for regulating greenhouse gases from power plants. We analyze what the new rules mean for electric power GHG and conventional pollutant emissions into the next decade.
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From a decarbonization perspective, tax guidance on the technology-neutral 45Y and 48E tax credits for clean electricity may be the single most important Inflation Reduction Act implementation action the IRS will take.
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State action has been a key historic driver of climate ambition, and additional policy action by states can help further close the gap between current emissions projections and US 2030 climate targets. In addition, states can leverage investments mad